What will happen with Australia’s populations without overseas migration at all?

With zero net overseas migration, that is, the same number of people leaving the country as arriving in it, Australia's total population would depend solely on natural increase. Under this scenario, the total population would be 25 million in 2033, 6 million less than the 2013 medium series projection for the same year. The proportion of people aged over 65 would increase to 23%, and the proportion of those under 15 would decrease to 16%.

Zero net overseas migration would result in people of working age making up 61% of the population in 2033, while the total dependency ratio would increase to 65 'dependents' for every 100 'workers'. At the same time, increasing life expectancy would result in the proportion of people aged 85 or more doubling to 4%.

Australia's population with zero net overseas migration, 2033 (a)


(a) 2013 numbers are estimated resident population at December 2013. Projections for 2063 assume a total fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman by 2025-26; life expectancy increasing to reach 85.2 years for men and 88.3 years for women by 2061; and net overseas migration of 0.

With zero net overseas migration, the population would start to decline in 2041 and the effect on Australia's age structure would be very evident. By 2063, the total population would have fallen back to 24 million people - 1 million less than in 2033. The proportion of people aged 65 years and over would increase to 29%, while the proportion of children would be 15%. Working-age people would make up 56% of the population, and there would be 79 'dependents' for every 100 'workers' - a ratio of 4:5. Around 1 in every 13 people (7%) would be aged 85 years or over.

Australia's population with zero net overseas migration, 2063 (a)


(a) 2013 numbers are estimated resident population at December 2013. Projections for 2063 assume a total fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman by 2025-26; life expectancy increasing to reach 85.2 years for men and 88.3 years for women by 2061; and net overseas migration of 0.

Source: Australian Demographic Statistics, Dec 2013; and Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101

For questions about Australian visas, or to deal with relevant visa application please email to yana@becomeaustralian.com